Task 4 support · assumptions exposed, not buried
Sizing sandbox
The SOW asks for estimated revenue from new streams. Estimates are only as honest as their assumptions, so ours are sliders. Baselines come from USPS-published figures (72.9M Informed Delivery users, 45.1B impressions, 58.6% open rate); the adjustable parameters are the things nobody can know before fieldwork, set here to conservative defaults. Everything computes in your browser; nothing is recorded.
Informed Delivery campaign fees
campaigns priced per year
per year, illustrative
Baseline: 1,025,694 campaigns completed cumulatively through Mar 2025, priced at $0 today. RISC-WP-21-005 says ROI measurement must precede pricing; the adoption slider models mailers who churn when fees arrive.
Digest sponsorship (CPM basis)
impressions monetized
per year, illustrative
Baseline: 45.1B impressions Apr 2024-Mar 2025 (USPS Year in Review). CPM defaults to the low end of display norms; sell-through reflects how much inventory USPS would actually offer.
Premium package-management tier
paying subscribers
per year, illustrative
Anchored to UPS My Choice Premium at $19.99/yr. No public attach-rate benchmark exists; the conversion slider is the honest uncertainty.
Reimbursed identity proofing (PSRA lane)
proofing events
per year, illustrative
Cost-recovery utilization, not profit: PSRA section 3703 requires reimbursement of at least 100% of attributable costs. Login.gov in-person verification at post offices is the live precedent.
These are planning illustrations for a white paper, not forecasts. In the deliverable each estimate carries its statutory pathway (including the 39 U.S.C. 3641 revenue caps where they bind), its precedent, and a stated confidence band, and the OIG’s internal channel data (research questions 1-3) would replace public proxies wherever it is stronger.